This is not the voice of a sociologist, so obviously poses a layman's mistake, but it seems that this year's elections were the last of its kind. Why? This is due to the sheer reading statistical yearbook.
In the last parliamentary elections, until about 5 million 650 thousand (of 30 million) entitled to vote were people who had no functionally conscious experience PRL (the age limit I felt intuitively year 1984). Voters you were a little over 18 percent of all voters. Not having access to the actual turnout 1984-1993 vintages, referring to the total number of eligible voters.
In the next election-kalendarzowo the European Parliament, in 2014 a group of holders of non-communist generation will grow by another 1.3 million voters. With 18% of all voters today will be almost 22-23% (assuming the group for about 7 million voters, and generally authorized for 31mln).
In the next super-election year (presidential and parliamentary elections), it will be even more numerous group-will increase by a further 400,000 young voters. Simultaneously, of course, the oldest voters will wane.
It can be assumed that the importance of the election will be a lot of demographics. Well because the voters do not have a functional PRL memory is meant the allegation that a politician collaborated demographicsnow with the SB? Who of them will remember the role of the Catholic Church in the fall of communism? Or a special place of John Paul II and the Polish history and in the hearts of Poles?
This memory must be blurred. Three years is the public awareness for a long time. In June this year, three years have passed even though two important public debate, symbolic events: the publication of successful demographicsnow books Cenckiewicz Gontarczyk about relationships and Lech Walesa of SB and Ewa Stankiewicz film publication "three buddies". Are today as it was then the temperature would increase the debate? And what in 2014 and 2015.
First-leadership in the Law and Justice. By analyzing the content of speeches and accents Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and in them what is important demographicsnow to him and what he is really trustworthy. demographicsnow It is in the things that matter prawodpodobnie election will move to a much lesser extent. Who will think it's actually happened riot police. And what it really is the militia? Betrayed at dawn, or rather doing a software upgrade next dawn. In three years we will have probably demographicsnow 8 version of the iPad. Dancing with the Stars? Maybe, but probably in the galaxy. And God only knows what else. Is the current leadership of the conservative opposition, he is able to enter into dialogue with the electorate, in the area of basic associations, demographicsnow beliefs and language? It seems that hardly.
Well ok, and Churchill? A Adenauer? A Reagan? Only a madman would refuse their political demographicsnow instincts, even though it won elections in more mature years than those in which Jaroslaw able to elections in 2014 and 15 (65-6 years). Yes, but the pace of technological development was extremely slow, and something demographicsnow like "24 hours news cycle" in fact did not exist.
Since the election a week ago, the Palikot Movement voted-by data from the exit poll OBOP-up 23% of young voters, and the SLD only 6, which is a kind way of remaining demographicsnow in the program and personal turmoil would recover post-communist left wind in the sails? Who and what? Given the influx of young voters, almost a revolution of awareness demographicsnow of technological, cultural and political as three and four years sooner Palikot demographicsnow picks up what's on your mind new voters, than anyone else.
Palikot movement has more than journalistic similarities to Self-Defense. Lepper's party in 2001, was also a "one man show". Referring first electoral success, achieved the same as Palikot Movement score of 10% and third place on the podium. During the 2001-2005 term of office has provided many distractions and scandals. Less sophisticated than those that can be expected after Palikocie. And even though, after sinking softly supported Miller's government, four years later, trading improved (by 1.2 pp). Taking demographicsnow into account that exceeds the talent but Palikot Lepper and by fading SLD has better demographicsnow flowering, we can only expect its further growth.
What about Donald Tusk and his formation? It's hard any assumptions. Premier has an unusual, on a European scale blairowskÄ… more than I think any of the leaders, the ability of transforming their policies to the needs of current trends. If Europe really waiting for the recession, it might be him harder than ever to defend his achievements. Achievements, which, moreover, is today in many areas rather demographicsnow propaganda.
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